Matt Chapman: An Elite MLB Player

Photo Courtesy: Keith Allison (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Matt Chapman was already a star in his first full season. This year, the Athletics third baseman has leaped into MVP Candidacy. From the moment he stepped onto a major league field, Chapman has played elite defense at third base. Through a refined approach, Chapman has improved his hitting. According to a metric that calculates overall value, Chapman is worth the fifth most "Wins Above Replacement" since the start of 2018, making him one of the best all around players in baseball.

By comparison, Nolan Arenado of the Rockies is the best defensive third basemen in the 21st century. Arguably, he’s the greatest third baseman of all time. He was the first infielder to win a gold glove in his first five seasons as a major leaguer. Yet, Matt Chapman may be even better. “It’s funny, he’s probably better than me now,” Arenado said, last July.

The data suggests that Chapman is most definitely better defensively than Arenado at this stage of their careers. Last season, Chapman led baseball in Defensive Runs Saved, with 29. The player with the next highest total had just 21. Arenado had 5.

Chapman’s defense alone makes him a star. In his rookie season, it wasn’t clear whether Chapman could hit enough to join Arenado as one of the game’s best. In 2017, Chapman hit just .234 with a .313 on base percentage. His power -- he had a .472 slugging percentage -- made him above average overall as hitter, but he had offensive flaws. He struck out over 28% of the time that season.

Last year, Chapman took a major step forward offensively. He lowered his strikeout rate to 23.7 percent. Overall, he rated as 37 percent better than league average with the bat, by wRC+, a park and league adjusted hitting metric. Still, Chapman’s propensity to strike out meant he was a great hitter, but not an elite one. In 2018, Chapman’s strikeout rate ranked 108 best out of 140 qualified batters.

In 2019, Chapman has been even better with the bat. He cut his strikeout rate nearly in half, down to just 12.6 percent, and is now 17th best in the majors. This is particularly remarkable considering that Chapman managed to avoid making more weak contact. Typically, a dramatic drop in strikeout rate comes at the cost of quality of contact – the less you strike out, the harder it is to consistently hit the ball hard. Chapman actually has made less soft contact this season, despite having a much lower K rate.

The above chart demonstrates how well Chapman has balanced his contact rate and quality of contact in 2019. He is above average in how often he makes contact when he swings, and is better than average at limiting how much of his contact is defined as ‘soft contact’. The best hitters in baseball tend to live in the quadrant that Chapman is in, by hitting the ball often, and usually hitting it well.

In other words, Chapman has made more frequent contact with the ball, while at the same time lowering his rate of making weak contact. With plenty of power and lots of contact, Chapman is in rare company. Put together with his superb defense, Chapman has become one of the best players in the league.